Let’s, for a change, jump to some conclusions, ignoring the caution that it is wiser not to do so. Let’s also examine the portents, rather than the contents, of the recently concluded US-Pakistan dialogue with a little more imagination than what is usually on offer, or permitted. What does it suggest?
Well, to begin with, that the talks not only went off well but, perhaps, too well. The Pakistani participants seemed over the moon, and so too their American counterparts. The former were rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect of goodies to come, while America, having restored trust between the two sides and with Pakistan fully on board, feels that it could still emerge from Afghanistan with its reputation intact. Of course, that is wishful thinking. The Taliban will retreat in the face of McCrystal’s oncoming “surge” and Pakistani pressure on their safe havens. But they will adjust and return to do battle. The Taliban, after all, are masters of their trade. Nevertheless, the vibes from the Washington meeting suggest that a breakthrough has indeed occurred. America is returning to Pakistan not to merely visit, or hang around, but to roost. It plans to be involved up to its neck in Pakistan. And the involvement will be close, intense and hands-on. And, what is more, America has, as its willing partner, the Pakistani military under Gen Kayani.
The transformation of the relationship—from diffident allies to partners, from having a stake to co-ownership of Pakistan’s future—stems from Washington’s belief that Pakistan must be saved, in spite of itself, for the sake of America’s own security. There is simply too much at stake. For Washington, acting like a backseat driver won’t do. The time has come for America, conjoined by Pakistan’s military, to take the wheel and chart the course. Without tinkering overly with the present system, the authors of this…let’s call it the “New Order,” mean to improve its working. The agenda will be nation-building-plus. Elected civilian governments will be the rule, but they will have to function within clearly defined economic and political parameters. The authors mean to be heard and obeyed, though seldom seen.
In return for allowing America a decisive say in Pakistan’s foreign and domestic affairs, and for unreserved willingness to cooperate in military matters, many good things are on offer:
1. Immediately, the IMF will be told to be more accommodating when it comes to enforcing its lethal regimen of ever-increasing taxes in lieu of subsidies. 2. The army can confidently expect to get more of what it requires, for doing more of what America wants. 3. A well-funded effort made to address Pakistan’s energy shortfall is likely to get underway as soon as projects identified by Pakistan pass American scrutiny. 4. India has already been approached to be less demanding and cantankerous, and restart the composite dialogue. “Secret orders” by Obama to this effect were reportedly issued earlier this year. 5. Foreign investment in Pakistan is being canvassed with, perhaps, America letting on quietly that it will be safeguarded. 6. Such an assurance, along with a good chit from the IMF, will enable the Friends of Pakistan Group to release moneys pledged earlier but withheld for fear of lack of transparency. 7. Meanwhile, the water crisis has been broached. Old dams will be dredged, canals lined, and much else done to improve the water supply. 8. At the end of the line, or somewhere in the middle of this ambitious agenda, if things go well, will be civil nuclear cooperation. 9. A seat at the table for Pakistan when it comes to deciding Afghanistan’s future setup has probably been conceded and, to cap it all, American assistance to achieve whatever is doable on Kashmir.
It is an ambitious menu, no doubt, but few will have failed to notice how much it blends with the 56-page list, unfairly dismissed as a “wish list,” handed over to the American side during the visit. A “wish list” is what you ideally need but cannot afford, not what is available for the asking if you cooperate and fulfil your side of the bargain.
There are several telltale signs that the “New Order” is being put into place. At America’s insistence the cofounder of the “New Order,” Gen Kayani, was made to attend and take the credit for the foreordained success of the Washington Dialogue. Twice the dates of the meeting were postponed while the government dallied with the question of his inclusion. The treatment extended to him during the visit was perhaps unique in terms of importance, given his standing in our own order of protocol. According to sources, Gen Kayani was “bugled” into the Pentagon when he arrived, a rare honour.
In preparation for the “New Order” Mr Zardari has been stripped of all his powers, less on account of the Charter of Democracy and more because Mr Zardari tends to abuse his powers rather than use them responsibly. Of course, Mr Zardari is being allowed to sell it as selflessness personified. Soon to go will be Mr Zardari’s controversial henchmen; they will likely be picked off, one by one, in the forthcoming trials and be replaced by carefully vetted men like Hafeez Shaikh. Mr Zardari himself may remain untouched for the moment, unless, of course, he hastens his own demise by acting up. And, if the judges become too unwieldy, a standoff between the two organs of the state can quickly be made to rebound to the detriment of both. With Gen Kayani now sure to get an extension or, better still, a promotion to the post of chairman of the Joint Chiefs, with enhanced powers, and Obama likely to win a second term, if only because its voting him out will traumatise American society, just as much as voting him in brought it together, the course is set. We are in for a period of stability in Pakistan. Noticeably, the Stock Market is booming.
How will the “New Order” be received? The major political parties will have to play ball. But as they are willing to play any game, even Russian roulette, in return for the pelf of office, this should pose no problem. Besides, they are used to taking directions; indeed, they are at a loss when acting without them. Even Nawaz Sharif, the one holdout, is rumoured to have “matured” after some tutoring. Moreover, the group of Kashmiris and East Punjabis around him are true survivors. They know how to adjust when the need arises. So much so that, when it happens, they will relish the crackdown on their ilk, the Punjabi fundos, as being long overdue. As for the populace, they are already disillusioned with the political parties. They have had it up to their gills with corruption and bad governance. They will welcome any relief that the “New Order” promises. In any case, it is not as if despotism is being imposed. The faces of those holding political office will remain comfortingly familiar and the font of democracy will be in place. Only the puppeteers will have changed.
The arrival of America with a decisive voice in government will undoubtedly fuel religious opposition. Links between religious political parties and the militant lashkars and jaishes, that are already fairly pronounced, will no doubt increase; however, their popularity need not. Moreover, the retaliation that they will invite by, for example, the closure of madressahs affiliated with them could deprive them of an important source of revenue. Thus, while their opposition to the “New Order” can be taken for granted, so too can its inefficacy.
Pakistan clearly needs a second wind if it is to emerge from the morass we are in. The advent of the “New Order” may just be the break we need. What do we have to lose?
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