Since 9-11, the US government, through Presidents Bush and Obama, has increasingly told the US public that “state secrets” will not be shared with citizens. Candidate Obama pledged to reduce the use of state secrets, but President Obama continued the Bush tradition. The Courts and Congress and international allies have gone meekly along with the escalating secrecy demands of the US Executive.
By labeling tens of millions of documents secret, the US government has created a huge vacuum of information.
But information is the lifeblood of democracy. Information about government contributes to a healthy democracy. Transparency and accountability are essential elements of good government. Likewise, “a lack of government transparency and accountability undermines democracy and gives rise to cynicism and mistrust,” according to a 2008 Harris survey commissioned by the Association of Government Accountants.
Into the secrecy vacuum stepped Private Bradley Manning, who, according to the Associated Press, was able to defeat “Pentagon security systems using little more than a Lady Gaga CD and a portable computer memory stick.”
Manning apparently sent the information to Wikileaks - a non profit media organization, which specializes in publishing leaked information. Wikileaks in turn shared the documents to other media around the world including the New York Times and published much of it on its website.
Despite criminal investigations by the US and other governments, it is not clear that media organizations like Wikileaks can be prosecuted in the US in light of First Amendment. Recall that the First Amendment says: “Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or of the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the government for a redress of grievances.”
Outraged politicians are claiming that the release of government information is the criminal equivalent of terrorism and puts innocent people’s lives at risk. Many of those same politicians authorized the modern equivalent of carpet bombing of Baghdad and other Iraqi cities, the sacrifice of thousands of lives of soldiers and civilians, and drone assaults on civilian areas in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Yemen. Their anger at a document dump, no matter how extensive, is more than a little suspect.
Everyone, including Wikileaks and the other media reporting the documents, hopes that no lives will be lost because of this. So far, that appears to be the case as McClatchey Newspapers reported November 28, 2010, that ‘US officials conceded that they have no evidence to date that the [prior] release of documents led to anyone’s death.”
The US has been going in the wrong direction for years by classifying millions of documents as secrets. Wikileaks and other media which report these so called secrets will embarrass people yes. Wikileaks and other media will make leaders uncomfortable yes. But embarrassment and discomfort are small prices to pay for a healthier democracy.
Wikileaks has the potential to make transparency and accountability more robust in the US. That is good for democracy.
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Thursday, January 6, 2011
More blood
We have seen yet another massacre, more blood has spilled, more lives been lost – this time in the Mohmand Agency where two suicide bombers struck at a gathering of some 100 people at an anti-Taliban lashkar’s meeting held at the offices of the local political agent. More than forty lives have been lost. The toll may climb. The attack emulates what has happened in other places in the past. As before, the lashkars set up by the government are a key target for the anger of militants who clearly wish to dissuade anyone who dares oppose them. We are told that security was in place at the venue. It was quite obviously not sufficient. If even after an effort that has continued for so many months the militants are still unbowed, it reflects a situation that is extremely dangerous and extremely challenging.
The fact of the matter is that security operations alone can never be enough to get rid of the militants. One point of the kind of attack we saw on Monday may be to demonstrate just this. The suicide bombing not only decimates lives but also makes it quite apparent that the Taliban remain intact and that their suicide squads can still be sent out at will. For authorities it is time to think. We need to do a lot more to root out militancy. Regional cooperation is one facet of this. The proximity of the tribal areas to Afghanistan makes it too easy for bands of militants to slip across the mountainous border and back. There is also evidence that there are pockets in the north where the Taliban continue to hide and it is possible they have support on the ground. From what we see before us, it is obvious that much needs to be done; the training centres for bombers need to be located and hierarchies of power dismantled. Until this happens there can be no real victory against a force that has proved to be far more tenacious than was first thought.
The fact of the matter is that security operations alone can never be enough to get rid of the militants. One point of the kind of attack we saw on Monday may be to demonstrate just this. The suicide bombing not only decimates lives but also makes it quite apparent that the Taliban remain intact and that their suicide squads can still be sent out at will. For authorities it is time to think. We need to do a lot more to root out militancy. Regional cooperation is one facet of this. The proximity of the tribal areas to Afghanistan makes it too easy for bands of militants to slip across the mountainous border and back. There is also evidence that there are pockets in the north where the Taliban continue to hide and it is possible they have support on the ground. From what we see before us, it is obvious that much needs to be done; the training centres for bombers need to be located and hierarchies of power dismantled. Until this happens there can be no real victory against a force that has proved to be far more tenacious than was first thought.
Bombing in Bajaur
The spreading stains of blood, the screams, the pandemonium are all now familiar to us. This time the suicide bomber struck in Khar, the principal town of the Bajaur Agency. The target had initially appeared to be a World Food Programme distribution point, handing out rations to IDPs and others in need. But while the WFP may be forced to curtail operations in the area, it has clarified that the target seemed to be a cluster of government buildings in the vicinity of the attack. To some degree at least, these details are academic. The fact is that at least 43 people are dead and another 60 injured. The toll could yet climb. Limited medical facilities in Bajaur make this more likely. As has happened before, the security situation could further affect humanitarian efforts in the country. It is people most in need of help who will suffer. This has already happened in other places as the spate of bombings, target killings and abductions forces both local and international relief agencies to pull out rather than risk violence against employees. The fallout of terrorism on ordinary people, in terms of lost jobs due to economic disarray, the growing sense of insecurity and threats to school-going children, has yet to be properly understood or assessed.
We have heard over the past few months assertions that the militant threat is now a thing of the past. The events of the past few days indicate this is not the case at all. On Friday night in Hangu, another bombing, perhaps aimed at a sectarian target, killed 11 people. This was of course not the first sectarian attack in the district. We have also seen suicide bombers strike in Mohmand where 40 died less than a week ago. Can we afford that this violence continues? The answer of course is ‘no’. Whenever a new bombing takes place, it creates a growing sense of insecurity among people and reduces faith that the terrorists are on their way out. As a result, confidence in the state inevitably declines. This has many negative connotations. Until people are convinced that militancy is a thing of the past, their loyalties will remain torn between the state and the Taliban. For the sake of survival, they cannot afford to back the wrong side. But, in turn, this makes the task of defeating the militants all the more difficult. For now, they remain capable of carrying out their missions and inflict death and destruction at will.
We have heard over the past few months assertions that the militant threat is now a thing of the past. The events of the past few days indicate this is not the case at all. On Friday night in Hangu, another bombing, perhaps aimed at a sectarian target, killed 11 people. This was of course not the first sectarian attack in the district. We have also seen suicide bombers strike in Mohmand where 40 died less than a week ago. Can we afford that this violence continues? The answer of course is ‘no’. Whenever a new bombing takes place, it creates a growing sense of insecurity among people and reduces faith that the terrorists are on their way out. As a result, confidence in the state inevitably declines. This has many negative connotations. Until people are convinced that militancy is a thing of the past, their loyalties will remain torn between the state and the Taliban. For the sake of survival, they cannot afford to back the wrong side. But, in turn, this makes the task of defeating the militants all the more difficult. For now, they remain capable of carrying out their missions and inflict death and destruction at will.
Dark city blues
We all have the blues from time to time. Those days when nothing seems to go right and even if it does it doesn’t go right in exactly the way you wanted. You wake up with that grumpy dissatisfied feeling; nobody can do anything that makes you happy and you are determinedly miserable. It can last for days, the blues. Weeks. Months. All sorts of things can bring on a bout of the blues from a broken fingernail to the recipe that failed to delight the hard-to-please guest. And electricity. Or its absence. Bahawalpur had a dose of the blues last week that continues as these words are typed and very nearly turned into psychotic axe-wielding brick-hurling tyre-burning violence. The dark blue mood was brought on by a marathon powercut that by the afternoon of last Wednesday had the banks musing on the wisdom of pulling down the shutters on the ATM machines – and when the banks do that you can sniff the same trouble in the air as they can.
Passing down Circular Road on a day when the sun was in brain-frying mode it was almost eerie - few cars, fewer pedestrians and apart from bakeries and the never-closed-as-far-as-I-know RhimJhims Tobacco Store, no open shops. The shutterdown in protest at the loadshedding was almost universal, and small knots of people stood around looking like they were trying to decide if they were blue enough to make a bit of a rumpus. Small knots of police looked at them, and in the end it was far too hot for a bit of ad-hoc rioting and so everybody sloped off home to houses that were as powerless as the people who lived in them.
There was power in my house but of the very expensive sort created by a UPS system for the computers and a noisy smelly generator at the back that gulps petrol like a man dying of thirst. A rhythm has developed. The power drops, the UPS picks up the computers and if power is not returned after an hour off goes the fridge, off go the mains and on goes the generator. The TV is left on as it is an indicator of when the power comes back – the picture reappears and the cycle is reversed. Off goes the generator, on goes the mains and the fridge and the UPS unit begins to charge up again. This may happen five or six times over a day depending on the outtages and can turn the cheeriest of souls into an ultramarine monster. Currently it is costing around 300 rupees a day to fuel Mrs Genny – work out for yourselves what that does to the monthly budget.
Seeing an entire city switched on is a startling sight. From a velvet blackness punctuated only by the lights winking at the top of the mobile phone towers and the faint orange glow from the airport to the south, to twinkling vibrancy in the blink of the eye. My house and a couple of others had stood out as islands of light, marking us as rich enough to hold the darkness at bay which may not be the best of advertisements considering the prevalence of armed robbery hereabouts. But it was the dark and fanless houses that preoccupied me. Blue as I was it will have been as nothing compared to what others less fortunate – poorer - but perhaps more angry, were experiencing. There was no power during the time it took me to write this piece. Fridge off, mains off and where is the petrol can? Anybody seen the petrol can? Dark city blues…
Passing down Circular Road on a day when the sun was in brain-frying mode it was almost eerie - few cars, fewer pedestrians and apart from bakeries and the never-closed-as-far-as-I-know RhimJhims Tobacco Store, no open shops. The shutterdown in protest at the loadshedding was almost universal, and small knots of people stood around looking like they were trying to decide if they were blue enough to make a bit of a rumpus. Small knots of police looked at them, and in the end it was far too hot for a bit of ad-hoc rioting and so everybody sloped off home to houses that were as powerless as the people who lived in them.
There was power in my house but of the very expensive sort created by a UPS system for the computers and a noisy smelly generator at the back that gulps petrol like a man dying of thirst. A rhythm has developed. The power drops, the UPS picks up the computers and if power is not returned after an hour off goes the fridge, off go the mains and on goes the generator. The TV is left on as it is an indicator of when the power comes back – the picture reappears and the cycle is reversed. Off goes the generator, on goes the mains and the fridge and the UPS unit begins to charge up again. This may happen five or six times over a day depending on the outtages and can turn the cheeriest of souls into an ultramarine monster. Currently it is costing around 300 rupees a day to fuel Mrs Genny – work out for yourselves what that does to the monthly budget.
Seeing an entire city switched on is a startling sight. From a velvet blackness punctuated only by the lights winking at the top of the mobile phone towers and the faint orange glow from the airport to the south, to twinkling vibrancy in the blink of the eye. My house and a couple of others had stood out as islands of light, marking us as rich enough to hold the darkness at bay which may not be the best of advertisements considering the prevalence of armed robbery hereabouts. But it was the dark and fanless houses that preoccupied me. Blue as I was it will have been as nothing compared to what others less fortunate – poorer - but perhaps more angry, were experiencing. There was no power during the time it took me to write this piece. Fridge off, mains off and where is the petrol can? Anybody seen the petrol can? Dark city blues…
Economists sans research
Research is to see what everybody else has seen, and to think what nobody else has thought. -Albert Szent-Gyorgyi
Despite the uni-dimensional education policy focus on churning out PhDs in every field, we have not yet settled for the reality that we are nowhere in the world when it comes to research on economic and social policies.
In any other country a field left so wide open could not have been up for grabs for so long, yet not a single domestic expert seems keen on taking advantage of the situation here. First, without going into individual profiles, let us analyse our experts. A strikingly high proportion of our economic and social development experts have been ex-employees of multilateral agencies. Even those associated with academic institutions have mainly been drawing significant income from working on “projects” as “consultants”, focused mainly on compiling “reports”. If such is the cadre of experts tasked to provide informed advice on matters of economic policy and development, no wonder we are getting nowhere with our policies.
Our ministries have a severe lack of capacity for conducting quality research on any aspect of the policies formulated by them. The government seems to have completely outsourced policy-making to donors and multilateral organisations. Experts are hired to compile reports and even more are appointed to make policy documents based on these reports. It is ironic that these very same experts are then hired from the donors’ side to reformulate the policies after some time. There is a complete institutional failure to develop inquisitive and probing researchers within the setup of ministries, who can at least provide some kind of feedback, if not wholly take the task of policy research, into the policy-making process.
A prime example of the lack of research capacity can be noticed at the premier policy-making body in the country - the Planning Commission. According to its website, this body is entrusted with “organising research and analytical studies for economic decision-making”, besides formulating five-year economic plans for the country. Surprisingly, however, this body – whose main function is to conduct research for economic decision-making - is headed by a respectable atomic energy expert, not an economist. The commission itself includes only four PhDs out of its total eight members, signifying just how much we value research. The story does not end here; under the publications section on the Planning Commission’s website, one finds the refreshing heading of “Research Papers of P&D Staff”- however, enthusiasm soon wanes when one finds that apparently only one member of the staff, Dr Karamat, seems to be interested in research. Dr Karamat again is not an economist; he is a health sector specialist.
The current mindset of our economic policy experts cannot be changed overnight. But it is about time we start moving in the right direction. For now we have a golden opportunity with the return of exceptionally brilliant young minds, well-trained in economic research from world-class western universities, via the Fulbright and other scholarship programmes. If the current mindset continues, we run the risk of wasting the young talent, continuing to depend on multilaterals for policy-making and carry on pretending that we know everything about our economy, when in truth we do not.
Despite the uni-dimensional education policy focus on churning out PhDs in every field, we have not yet settled for the reality that we are nowhere in the world when it comes to research on economic and social policies.
In any other country a field left so wide open could not have been up for grabs for so long, yet not a single domestic expert seems keen on taking advantage of the situation here. First, without going into individual profiles, let us analyse our experts. A strikingly high proportion of our economic and social development experts have been ex-employees of multilateral agencies. Even those associated with academic institutions have mainly been drawing significant income from working on “projects” as “consultants”, focused mainly on compiling “reports”. If such is the cadre of experts tasked to provide informed advice on matters of economic policy and development, no wonder we are getting nowhere with our policies.
Our ministries have a severe lack of capacity for conducting quality research on any aspect of the policies formulated by them. The government seems to have completely outsourced policy-making to donors and multilateral organisations. Experts are hired to compile reports and even more are appointed to make policy documents based on these reports. It is ironic that these very same experts are then hired from the donors’ side to reformulate the policies after some time. There is a complete institutional failure to develop inquisitive and probing researchers within the setup of ministries, who can at least provide some kind of feedback, if not wholly take the task of policy research, into the policy-making process.
A prime example of the lack of research capacity can be noticed at the premier policy-making body in the country - the Planning Commission. According to its website, this body is entrusted with “organising research and analytical studies for economic decision-making”, besides formulating five-year economic plans for the country. Surprisingly, however, this body – whose main function is to conduct research for economic decision-making - is headed by a respectable atomic energy expert, not an economist. The commission itself includes only four PhDs out of its total eight members, signifying just how much we value research. The story does not end here; under the publications section on the Planning Commission’s website, one finds the refreshing heading of “Research Papers of P&D Staff”- however, enthusiasm soon wanes when one finds that apparently only one member of the staff, Dr Karamat, seems to be interested in research. Dr Karamat again is not an economist; he is a health sector specialist.
The current mindset of our economic policy experts cannot be changed overnight. But it is about time we start moving in the right direction. For now we have a golden opportunity with the return of exceptionally brilliant young minds, well-trained in economic research from world-class western universities, via the Fulbright and other scholarship programmes. If the current mindset continues, we run the risk of wasting the young talent, continuing to depend on multilaterals for policy-making and carry on pretending that we know everything about our economy, when in truth we do not.
They’re coming — for good
Let’s, for a change, jump to some conclusions, ignoring the caution that it is wiser not to do so. Let’s also examine the portents, rather than the contents, of the recently concluded US-Pakistan dialogue with a little more imagination than what is usually on offer, or permitted. What does it suggest?
Well, to begin with, that the talks not only went off well but, perhaps, too well. The Pakistani participants seemed over the moon, and so too their American counterparts. The former were rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect of goodies to come, while America, having restored trust between the two sides and with Pakistan fully on board, feels that it could still emerge from Afghanistan with its reputation intact. Of course, that is wishful thinking. The Taliban will retreat in the face of McCrystal’s oncoming “surge” and Pakistani pressure on their safe havens. But they will adjust and return to do battle. The Taliban, after all, are masters of their trade. Nevertheless, the vibes from the Washington meeting suggest that a breakthrough has indeed occurred. America is returning to Pakistan not to merely visit, or hang around, but to roost. It plans to be involved up to its neck in Pakistan. And the involvement will be close, intense and hands-on. And, what is more, America has, as its willing partner, the Pakistani military under Gen Kayani.
The transformation of the relationship—from diffident allies to partners, from having a stake to co-ownership of Pakistan’s future—stems from Washington’s belief that Pakistan must be saved, in spite of itself, for the sake of America’s own security. There is simply too much at stake. For Washington, acting like a backseat driver won’t do. The time has come for America, conjoined by Pakistan’s military, to take the wheel and chart the course. Without tinkering overly with the present system, the authors of this…let’s call it the “New Order,” mean to improve its working. The agenda will be nation-building-plus. Elected civilian governments will be the rule, but they will have to function within clearly defined economic and political parameters. The authors mean to be heard and obeyed, though seldom seen.
In return for allowing America a decisive say in Pakistan’s foreign and domestic affairs, and for unreserved willingness to cooperate in military matters, many good things are on offer:
1. Immediately, the IMF will be told to be more accommodating when it comes to enforcing its lethal regimen of ever-increasing taxes in lieu of subsidies. 2. The army can confidently expect to get more of what it requires, for doing more of what America wants. 3. A well-funded effort made to address Pakistan’s energy shortfall is likely to get underway as soon as projects identified by Pakistan pass American scrutiny. 4. India has already been approached to be less demanding and cantankerous, and restart the composite dialogue. “Secret orders” by Obama to this effect were reportedly issued earlier this year. 5. Foreign investment in Pakistan is being canvassed with, perhaps, America letting on quietly that it will be safeguarded. 6. Such an assurance, along with a good chit from the IMF, will enable the Friends of Pakistan Group to release moneys pledged earlier but withheld for fear of lack of transparency. 7. Meanwhile, the water crisis has been broached. Old dams will be dredged, canals lined, and much else done to improve the water supply. 8. At the end of the line, or somewhere in the middle of this ambitious agenda, if things go well, will be civil nuclear cooperation. 9. A seat at the table for Pakistan when it comes to deciding Afghanistan’s future setup has probably been conceded and, to cap it all, American assistance to achieve whatever is doable on Kashmir.
It is an ambitious menu, no doubt, but few will have failed to notice how much it blends with the 56-page list, unfairly dismissed as a “wish list,” handed over to the American side during the visit. A “wish list” is what you ideally need but cannot afford, not what is available for the asking if you cooperate and fulfil your side of the bargain.
There are several telltale signs that the “New Order” is being put into place. At America’s insistence the cofounder of the “New Order,” Gen Kayani, was made to attend and take the credit for the foreordained success of the Washington Dialogue. Twice the dates of the meeting were postponed while the government dallied with the question of his inclusion. The treatment extended to him during the visit was perhaps unique in terms of importance, given his standing in our own order of protocol. According to sources, Gen Kayani was “bugled” into the Pentagon when he arrived, a rare honour.
In preparation for the “New Order” Mr Zardari has been stripped of all his powers, less on account of the Charter of Democracy and more because Mr Zardari tends to abuse his powers rather than use them responsibly. Of course, Mr Zardari is being allowed to sell it as selflessness personified. Soon to go will be Mr Zardari’s controversial henchmen; they will likely be picked off, one by one, in the forthcoming trials and be replaced by carefully vetted men like Hafeez Shaikh. Mr Zardari himself may remain untouched for the moment, unless, of course, he hastens his own demise by acting up. And, if the judges become too unwieldy, a standoff between the two organs of the state can quickly be made to rebound to the detriment of both. With Gen Kayani now sure to get an extension or, better still, a promotion to the post of chairman of the Joint Chiefs, with enhanced powers, and Obama likely to win a second term, if only because its voting him out will traumatise American society, just as much as voting him in brought it together, the course is set. We are in for a period of stability in Pakistan. Noticeably, the Stock Market is booming.
How will the “New Order” be received? The major political parties will have to play ball. But as they are willing to play any game, even Russian roulette, in return for the pelf of office, this should pose no problem. Besides, they are used to taking directions; indeed, they are at a loss when acting without them. Even Nawaz Sharif, the one holdout, is rumoured to have “matured” after some tutoring. Moreover, the group of Kashmiris and East Punjabis around him are true survivors. They know how to adjust when the need arises. So much so that, when it happens, they will relish the crackdown on their ilk, the Punjabi fundos, as being long overdue. As for the populace, they are already disillusioned with the political parties. They have had it up to their gills with corruption and bad governance. They will welcome any relief that the “New Order” promises. In any case, it is not as if despotism is being imposed. The faces of those holding political office will remain comfortingly familiar and the font of democracy will be in place. Only the puppeteers will have changed.
The arrival of America with a decisive voice in government will undoubtedly fuel religious opposition. Links between religious political parties and the militant lashkars and jaishes, that are already fairly pronounced, will no doubt increase; however, their popularity need not. Moreover, the retaliation that they will invite by, for example, the closure of madressahs affiliated with them could deprive them of an important source of revenue. Thus, while their opposition to the “New Order” can be taken for granted, so too can its inefficacy.
Pakistan clearly needs a second wind if it is to emerge from the morass we are in. The advent of the “New Order” may just be the break we need. What do we have to lose?
Well, to begin with, that the talks not only went off well but, perhaps, too well. The Pakistani participants seemed over the moon, and so too their American counterparts. The former were rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect of goodies to come, while America, having restored trust between the two sides and with Pakistan fully on board, feels that it could still emerge from Afghanistan with its reputation intact. Of course, that is wishful thinking. The Taliban will retreat in the face of McCrystal’s oncoming “surge” and Pakistani pressure on their safe havens. But they will adjust and return to do battle. The Taliban, after all, are masters of their trade. Nevertheless, the vibes from the Washington meeting suggest that a breakthrough has indeed occurred. America is returning to Pakistan not to merely visit, or hang around, but to roost. It plans to be involved up to its neck in Pakistan. And the involvement will be close, intense and hands-on. And, what is more, America has, as its willing partner, the Pakistani military under Gen Kayani.
The transformation of the relationship—from diffident allies to partners, from having a stake to co-ownership of Pakistan’s future—stems from Washington’s belief that Pakistan must be saved, in spite of itself, for the sake of America’s own security. There is simply too much at stake. For Washington, acting like a backseat driver won’t do. The time has come for America, conjoined by Pakistan’s military, to take the wheel and chart the course. Without tinkering overly with the present system, the authors of this…let’s call it the “New Order,” mean to improve its working. The agenda will be nation-building-plus. Elected civilian governments will be the rule, but they will have to function within clearly defined economic and political parameters. The authors mean to be heard and obeyed, though seldom seen.
In return for allowing America a decisive say in Pakistan’s foreign and domestic affairs, and for unreserved willingness to cooperate in military matters, many good things are on offer:
1. Immediately, the IMF will be told to be more accommodating when it comes to enforcing its lethal regimen of ever-increasing taxes in lieu of subsidies. 2. The army can confidently expect to get more of what it requires, for doing more of what America wants. 3. A well-funded effort made to address Pakistan’s energy shortfall is likely to get underway as soon as projects identified by Pakistan pass American scrutiny. 4. India has already been approached to be less demanding and cantankerous, and restart the composite dialogue. “Secret orders” by Obama to this effect were reportedly issued earlier this year. 5. Foreign investment in Pakistan is being canvassed with, perhaps, America letting on quietly that it will be safeguarded. 6. Such an assurance, along with a good chit from the IMF, will enable the Friends of Pakistan Group to release moneys pledged earlier but withheld for fear of lack of transparency. 7. Meanwhile, the water crisis has been broached. Old dams will be dredged, canals lined, and much else done to improve the water supply. 8. At the end of the line, or somewhere in the middle of this ambitious agenda, if things go well, will be civil nuclear cooperation. 9. A seat at the table for Pakistan when it comes to deciding Afghanistan’s future setup has probably been conceded and, to cap it all, American assistance to achieve whatever is doable on Kashmir.
It is an ambitious menu, no doubt, but few will have failed to notice how much it blends with the 56-page list, unfairly dismissed as a “wish list,” handed over to the American side during the visit. A “wish list” is what you ideally need but cannot afford, not what is available for the asking if you cooperate and fulfil your side of the bargain.
There are several telltale signs that the “New Order” is being put into place. At America’s insistence the cofounder of the “New Order,” Gen Kayani, was made to attend and take the credit for the foreordained success of the Washington Dialogue. Twice the dates of the meeting were postponed while the government dallied with the question of his inclusion. The treatment extended to him during the visit was perhaps unique in terms of importance, given his standing in our own order of protocol. According to sources, Gen Kayani was “bugled” into the Pentagon when he arrived, a rare honour.
In preparation for the “New Order” Mr Zardari has been stripped of all his powers, less on account of the Charter of Democracy and more because Mr Zardari tends to abuse his powers rather than use them responsibly. Of course, Mr Zardari is being allowed to sell it as selflessness personified. Soon to go will be Mr Zardari’s controversial henchmen; they will likely be picked off, one by one, in the forthcoming trials and be replaced by carefully vetted men like Hafeez Shaikh. Mr Zardari himself may remain untouched for the moment, unless, of course, he hastens his own demise by acting up. And, if the judges become too unwieldy, a standoff between the two organs of the state can quickly be made to rebound to the detriment of both. With Gen Kayani now sure to get an extension or, better still, a promotion to the post of chairman of the Joint Chiefs, with enhanced powers, and Obama likely to win a second term, if only because its voting him out will traumatise American society, just as much as voting him in brought it together, the course is set. We are in for a period of stability in Pakistan. Noticeably, the Stock Market is booming.
How will the “New Order” be received? The major political parties will have to play ball. But as they are willing to play any game, even Russian roulette, in return for the pelf of office, this should pose no problem. Besides, they are used to taking directions; indeed, they are at a loss when acting without them. Even Nawaz Sharif, the one holdout, is rumoured to have “matured” after some tutoring. Moreover, the group of Kashmiris and East Punjabis around him are true survivors. They know how to adjust when the need arises. So much so that, when it happens, they will relish the crackdown on their ilk, the Punjabi fundos, as being long overdue. As for the populace, they are already disillusioned with the political parties. They have had it up to their gills with corruption and bad governance. They will welcome any relief that the “New Order” promises. In any case, it is not as if despotism is being imposed. The faces of those holding political office will remain comfortingly familiar and the font of democracy will be in place. Only the puppeteers will have changed.
The arrival of America with a decisive voice in government will undoubtedly fuel religious opposition. Links between religious political parties and the militant lashkars and jaishes, that are already fairly pronounced, will no doubt increase; however, their popularity need not. Moreover, the retaliation that they will invite by, for example, the closure of madressahs affiliated with them could deprive them of an important source of revenue. Thus, while their opposition to the “New Order” can be taken for granted, so too can its inefficacy.
Pakistan clearly needs a second wind if it is to emerge from the morass we are in. The advent of the “New Order” may just be the break we need. What do we have to lose?
The curse of borrowing and interest
The word “borrowing” in itself looks so simple, but it has been responsible for untold and unimaginable hardship and misery to many. Only someone who has been a victim of this curse, whether lender or borrower, knows the consequences.
Almighty Allah has clearly warned against it in the Quran:
1. As for those who devour interest, they behave as the one whom Satan has confounded with his touch. Seized in this state, they say: Buying and selling is but a kind of interest, even though Allah has made buying and selling lawful, but interest unlawful (haram). (2:275-276)
2. Believers! Have fear of Allah and give up all outstanding interest if you do truly believe. But if you fail to do so, then be warned of war (chastisement) from Allah and His Prophet. If you repent even now, you have the right of the return of your capital; neither will you do wrong nor will you be wronged. But if the debtor is in difficult circumstances, let him have respite until the time of ease, and whatever you remit by way of charity is better for you. If only you know. (2:278-280)
3. Believers! Do not devour interest, double and redoubled, and be mindful of Allah, so that you may attain true success. (3:130)
4. Whatever you pay as interest so that it may increase the wealth of people does not increase in the sight of Allah. As for the Zakat that you give, seeking with it Allah’s good pleasure, that is multiplied manifold. (3:39)
5. And for their taking interest which had been prohibited to them, and for their consuming the wealth of others wrongfully, and for the unbelievers among them, we have prepared a painful chastisement. (4:161)
Borrowing is easy, but the problems start when the time comes for repayment. We are all aware of the negative effects of borrowing and even a beggar, upon receiving alms, will pray for you by saying: “May Allah protect you from borrowing and from dependent on others.”
Despite these warnings, some people (rarely are they genuinely needy people) still buy on loan. Contrary to organised lending facilities, shopkeepers often hesitate to do so, as they usually end up losing their money. For them, lending is easier that recovering. In larger setups, thugs are hired to coerce lenders to return what they had borrowed. We have recently tried following the Indian practice of hiring khwaja saras to sit and sing in front of the houses/offices of loan defaulters in an effort to shame them into repaying their debts.
We often see that banks and other lending institutions are ruthless and harsh in recovering loans from the financially underprivileged while at the same time writing off billions of rupees in loans from the influential. The poor are often forced to sell property and or belongings to pay off Rs50,000 or so while the wealthy go off scot-free. Sometimes it even leads to suicide due to inability to repay.
There are many different kinds of borrowing, some of which can be summarised as follows:
Between shopkeeper and customer. The “borrower” here usually belongs to the low-income group. They buy at deferred payment and then pay when they receive their salaries. This kind of lending usually takes place between people who are known to each other and hinges on mutual agreement.
Between landlord and peasant. The peasant pays back the amount borrowed after selling his crop. However, here the rate of interest is always high and often not covered by the sale of crops. Often the peasant is forced to mortgage his land and ends up losing it. The entire peasant family then ends up being servants (read slaves) of the landlord. Unfortunately, this curse is quite common in Pakistan. It is not unusual to see a cruel landlord chaining the entire family and treating them as slaves. Thanks to the activities of the judiciary, such cases are now being exposed and are being dealt with severely and many families have been liberated.
• Between friends and family members. Here the victim is usually the lender, not the borrower. The borrower uses reasons of medical treatment, marriage of children, repayment of loans, etc., and promises to return the money as soon as possible. This “as soon as possible” often never materialises and the lender, poor fellow, due to many considerations, never presses the matter, thus losing his money. The borrower may then move on to his next victim.
• Between businessmen/industrialists and lending institutions. This type of borrowing is usually done very cunningly by using connections and influence and with the connivance of the lending institution. The value of the mortgaged property is estimated exorbitantly high or with insufficient collateral coverage in order to obtain a large loan. It is this abhorrent practice that is one of the main factors in breaking the back of our economy. Corrupt bankers and cunning industrialists/businessmen swallow billions of rupees every year, the latest example being that of Bank of Punjab losing almost Rs10 billion. Recently published statistics show that almost Rs100 billion was written of as “bad loans” during the Musharraf era. Over the last few decades, bad loans worth more than Rs250 billion have been written off. Ours is the only country where the writing off of loans is common practice. While the defaulters are still billionaires owning huge villas and expensive cars, the country suffers. Recently the Supreme Court has taken notice of this menace and is trying to have the money recovered. The amounts written off are from the taxpayers’ money and while the already rich benefit, the ordinary citizen gets very little return on his deposits/savings. This curse started with the nationalisation of banks and industries and the rulers appointing their relatives/friends as heads of these institutions. Now it became simply a matter of easy mutual connivance.
• Between Pakistani governments and international lending institutions. Corruption, mismanagement, the writing off of huge sums of money as bad loans, etc., has resulted in the country having to borrow billions of dollars from international institutions and foreign countries. The annual rate on these loans alone exceeds one billion dollar annually. The various institutions have a hold on us like an octopus holds its prey. We have to comply with their conditions and obey their dictates, often to the detriment of the national interest and the common man. Then there is no other option than to raise the prices of essential utilities/commodities, thus increasing the stranglehold on the poor. But then, as beggars, one can’t be choosers.
Every rational thinking Pakistani is worried. One wonders why a country with 180 million people, with many natural resources and with a reasonable number of educated and talented people should find itself in this situation. We are plagued by bad governance, corruption, nepotism, dishonesty, hoarding, adulteration, etc. In my personal opinion there are two main causes for this malady. 1) Our selfish, corrupt, bad administration, and 2) the poor performance of our financial managers. Bad governance and corruption lead to the break-up of all institutions and because of mal intent, the blessing (barkat) of Almighty Allah has disappeared. The progress, prosperity and development of a country depend on the performance of its financial institutions. In our case, both the leaders and the financial institutions have failed to deliver the desired results. All we can do is pray for a miracle, but miracles don’t happen when people indulge in wrongdoing and disobey the clear edicts of Allah.
Almighty Allah has clearly warned against it in the Quran:
1. As for those who devour interest, they behave as the one whom Satan has confounded with his touch. Seized in this state, they say: Buying and selling is but a kind of interest, even though Allah has made buying and selling lawful, but interest unlawful (haram). (2:275-276)
2. Believers! Have fear of Allah and give up all outstanding interest if you do truly believe. But if you fail to do so, then be warned of war (chastisement) from Allah and His Prophet. If you repent even now, you have the right of the return of your capital; neither will you do wrong nor will you be wronged. But if the debtor is in difficult circumstances, let him have respite until the time of ease, and whatever you remit by way of charity is better for you. If only you know. (2:278-280)
3. Believers! Do not devour interest, double and redoubled, and be mindful of Allah, so that you may attain true success. (3:130)
4. Whatever you pay as interest so that it may increase the wealth of people does not increase in the sight of Allah. As for the Zakat that you give, seeking with it Allah’s good pleasure, that is multiplied manifold. (3:39)
5. And for their taking interest which had been prohibited to them, and for their consuming the wealth of others wrongfully, and for the unbelievers among them, we have prepared a painful chastisement. (4:161)
Borrowing is easy, but the problems start when the time comes for repayment. We are all aware of the negative effects of borrowing and even a beggar, upon receiving alms, will pray for you by saying: “May Allah protect you from borrowing and from dependent on others.”
Despite these warnings, some people (rarely are they genuinely needy people) still buy on loan. Contrary to organised lending facilities, shopkeepers often hesitate to do so, as they usually end up losing their money. For them, lending is easier that recovering. In larger setups, thugs are hired to coerce lenders to return what they had borrowed. We have recently tried following the Indian practice of hiring khwaja saras to sit and sing in front of the houses/offices of loan defaulters in an effort to shame them into repaying their debts.
We often see that banks and other lending institutions are ruthless and harsh in recovering loans from the financially underprivileged while at the same time writing off billions of rupees in loans from the influential. The poor are often forced to sell property and or belongings to pay off Rs50,000 or so while the wealthy go off scot-free. Sometimes it even leads to suicide due to inability to repay.
There are many different kinds of borrowing, some of which can be summarised as follows:
Between shopkeeper and customer. The “borrower” here usually belongs to the low-income group. They buy at deferred payment and then pay when they receive their salaries. This kind of lending usually takes place between people who are known to each other and hinges on mutual agreement.
Between landlord and peasant. The peasant pays back the amount borrowed after selling his crop. However, here the rate of interest is always high and often not covered by the sale of crops. Often the peasant is forced to mortgage his land and ends up losing it. The entire peasant family then ends up being servants (read slaves) of the landlord. Unfortunately, this curse is quite common in Pakistan. It is not unusual to see a cruel landlord chaining the entire family and treating them as slaves. Thanks to the activities of the judiciary, such cases are now being exposed and are being dealt with severely and many families have been liberated.
• Between friends and family members. Here the victim is usually the lender, not the borrower. The borrower uses reasons of medical treatment, marriage of children, repayment of loans, etc., and promises to return the money as soon as possible. This “as soon as possible” often never materialises and the lender, poor fellow, due to many considerations, never presses the matter, thus losing his money. The borrower may then move on to his next victim.
• Between businessmen/industrialists and lending institutions. This type of borrowing is usually done very cunningly by using connections and influence and with the connivance of the lending institution. The value of the mortgaged property is estimated exorbitantly high or with insufficient collateral coverage in order to obtain a large loan. It is this abhorrent practice that is one of the main factors in breaking the back of our economy. Corrupt bankers and cunning industrialists/businessmen swallow billions of rupees every year, the latest example being that of Bank of Punjab losing almost Rs10 billion. Recently published statistics show that almost Rs100 billion was written of as “bad loans” during the Musharraf era. Over the last few decades, bad loans worth more than Rs250 billion have been written off. Ours is the only country where the writing off of loans is common practice. While the defaulters are still billionaires owning huge villas and expensive cars, the country suffers. Recently the Supreme Court has taken notice of this menace and is trying to have the money recovered. The amounts written off are from the taxpayers’ money and while the already rich benefit, the ordinary citizen gets very little return on his deposits/savings. This curse started with the nationalisation of banks and industries and the rulers appointing their relatives/friends as heads of these institutions. Now it became simply a matter of easy mutual connivance.
• Between Pakistani governments and international lending institutions. Corruption, mismanagement, the writing off of huge sums of money as bad loans, etc., has resulted in the country having to borrow billions of dollars from international institutions and foreign countries. The annual rate on these loans alone exceeds one billion dollar annually. The various institutions have a hold on us like an octopus holds its prey. We have to comply with their conditions and obey their dictates, often to the detriment of the national interest and the common man. Then there is no other option than to raise the prices of essential utilities/commodities, thus increasing the stranglehold on the poor. But then, as beggars, one can’t be choosers.
Every rational thinking Pakistani is worried. One wonders why a country with 180 million people, with many natural resources and with a reasonable number of educated and talented people should find itself in this situation. We are plagued by bad governance, corruption, nepotism, dishonesty, hoarding, adulteration, etc. In my personal opinion there are two main causes for this malady. 1) Our selfish, corrupt, bad administration, and 2) the poor performance of our financial managers. Bad governance and corruption lead to the break-up of all institutions and because of mal intent, the blessing (barkat) of Almighty Allah has disappeared. The progress, prosperity and development of a country depend on the performance of its financial institutions. In our case, both the leaders and the financial institutions have failed to deliver the desired results. All we can do is pray for a miracle, but miracles don’t happen when people indulge in wrongdoing and disobey the clear edicts of Allah.
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