WELLINGTON: A quickfire 206 by Brendon McCullum put the New Zealand XI in a commanding position at 342-4 at the close of the first day of their first Test warm-up match against Pakistan in Whangarei on Sunday.
The Pakistan and New Zealand sides are at near full strength and have agreed to use 12 players for this match ahead of the two-Test series which starts on January 7 in Hamilton.
McCullum, who did not play in the recent Twenty20 series won by New Zealand 2-1, belted 20 fours and five sixes after skipper Daniel Vettori won the toss and elected to bat on the new Cobham Oval wicket.
McCullum brought up the double century in style with a six, scoring 200 off only 210 balls and featured in a 162-run opening partnership with Tim McIntosh (51) before being caught by Umar Gul off Asad Shafiq to end a 218-ball stand.
BJ Watling was out for 24 and Kane Williamson 16 with James Franklin (17) and Dean Brownlie (11) the unbeaten batsmen at stumps.
Wahab Riaz, Saeed Ajmal, Abdur Rehman and Gul have taken a wicket each for Pakistan.
McCullum, who has returned to play after a recurring back injury said he is feeling fit after his absence and did not consider retiring.
“Hopefully I can can carry this form into series. I feel pretty good, a period away keeps you hungry and I’m looking forward to making a contribution in the Test series.”
It was another chance to develop his partnership with Tim McIntosh as test openers that could not be passed up, he added.
“We have had some we had some good ones (opening partnerships) and a couple of not so good ones so it’s a good opportunity to work on it. “Any chance to build on it has got to be taken especially with an attack like this one.”
Score board
New Zealand Cricket XI won toss
New Zealand Cricket XI 1st innings
T G McIntosh c Azhar Ali b Abdur Rehman 51
B B McCullum c Asad Shafiq b Umar Gul 206
B J Watling c Younis Khan b Wahab Riaz 24
K S Williamson c Adnan Akmal b Saeed Ajmal 16
J E C Franklin not out 17
D G Brownlie not out 11
Extras (lb1, w5, nb11) 17
Total (4 wickets, 86 overs) 342
Did not bat: *D L Vettori, †R A Young, T G Southee, T A Boult, B J Arnel, C S Martin
Fall: 1-162, 2-248, 3-291, 4-321
Bowling: Sohail Tanvir 12-2-48-0 (2nb); Tanvir Ahmed 13-2-80-0 (4nb, 1w); Umar Gul 14-2-52-1 (3nb); Wahab Riaz 16-3-51-1 (2nb, 4w); Abdur Rehman 18-3-56-1; Saeed Ajmal 13-2-54-1
Pakistan
Saeed Ajmal, Taufeeq Umar, Younis Khan, Azhar Ali, *Misbah-ul-Haq, Asad Shafiq, †Adnan Akmal, Abdur Rehman, Tanvir Ahmed, Wahab Riaz, Umar Gul, Sohail Tanvir
Umpires: B G Frost and C B Gaffaney
 |
Thursday, January 6, 2011
Announcement to be made in London US, allies plan
WASHINGTON, Jan 26: The United States and its allies are expected to set up a $500 million integration fund at a conference in London this week to lure Taliban fighters to join the political mainstream.
“We are going to go to London to affirm our international support for it,” said US special envoy Richard Holbrooke. “Money will be forthcoming for it. I can’t say how much. The Japanese are going to take the lead.” In an interview to MSNBC television on Monday evening, Mr Holbrooke said that the initiative would fill a gap in dealing with the Taliban because “there’s no good programme to invite them back into the fold”.
British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, who is hosting the London conference, said the summit would “cover both our military and our political strategies, but concentrate on the political strategy for Afghanistan”.
About 60 countries are expected to attend the conference.
The United States is offering $100 million to set up the fund.
In Berlin, German Chancellor Angela Merkel told journalists that her government would contribute $14 million a year for five years to the proposed fund.
“This is an international ac cord to set up a fund to allow reintegration in cooperation with the Afghan government,” she said.
She said 500 German troops would join 4,300 already in place and that 350 reservists would be put on stand-by for Afghanistan.
The plan will be presented at the conference on Jan 28, in a response to a call by Afghan President Hamid Karzai for help in getting insurgents to stop fighting his government.
The plan aims to integrate those Taliban who are not part of the Al Qaeda terrorist network into the political mainstream.
In an interview to Turkey’s NTV, President Karzai praised the plan as a step in the right direction, saying that “those who joined the Taliban are also children of Afghanistan”.
“I will be making a statement at the conference in London to the effect of removing Taliban names from the United Nations sanctions list,” Mr Karzai said.
In Washington, the US State Department announced that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton would also attend the conference, which would demonstrate the international community’s support for Afghanistan’s future and the agenda outlined by President Karzai in his November 19 inauguration speech.
“The meetings will focus on the implementation of our strategy in support of Afghanistan’s security, governance and development, and improved international civilian coordination,” the State Department said.
Gen Stanley McChrystal, the top US commander in Afghanistan, will also attend the conference. “I’d like everybody to walk out of London with a renewed commitment,” he said, “and that commitment is to the right outcome for the Afghan people”.
Gen McChrystal is expected to push his plan for peace with the Taliban, while Mr Holbrooke will participate in discussions on the so-called Taliban integration fund.
Canada, which has deployed 2,800 troops in Afghanistan, also has indicated its support for a negotiated peace with the Taliban.
“Yes, discussions with the Taliban; yes, led by the Afghans; and yes, certain conditions that have to be in place,” said Canadian Defence Minister Peter MacKay. “Without that the discussions really are moot.” The Taliban has long resisted calls for negotiations. Last week, spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid emphatically stated that “the only political solution is that the foreign forces and the Afghan government surrender to us”.
Diplomatic observers in Washington say that negotiations may be the only way to a peaceful settlement in Afghanistan.
A continued confrontation, they warned, might lead to a massive bloodshed at the hands of militants once Nato soldiers left.
Copyright DawnNews 27.01.2010
“We are going to go to London to affirm our international support for it,” said US special envoy Richard Holbrooke. “Money will be forthcoming for it. I can’t say how much. The Japanese are going to take the lead.” In an interview to MSNBC television on Monday evening, Mr Holbrooke said that the initiative would fill a gap in dealing with the Taliban because “there’s no good programme to invite them back into the fold”.
British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, who is hosting the London conference, said the summit would “cover both our military and our political strategies, but concentrate on the political strategy for Afghanistan”.
About 60 countries are expected to attend the conference.
The United States is offering $100 million to set up the fund.
In Berlin, German Chancellor Angela Merkel told journalists that her government would contribute $14 million a year for five years to the proposed fund.
“This is an international ac cord to set up a fund to allow reintegration in cooperation with the Afghan government,” she said.
She said 500 German troops would join 4,300 already in place and that 350 reservists would be put on stand-by for Afghanistan.
The plan will be presented at the conference on Jan 28, in a response to a call by Afghan President Hamid Karzai for help in getting insurgents to stop fighting his government.
The plan aims to integrate those Taliban who are not part of the Al Qaeda terrorist network into the political mainstream.
In an interview to Turkey’s NTV, President Karzai praised the plan as a step in the right direction, saying that “those who joined the Taliban are also children of Afghanistan”.
“I will be making a statement at the conference in London to the effect of removing Taliban names from the United Nations sanctions list,” Mr Karzai said.
In Washington, the US State Department announced that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton would also attend the conference, which would demonstrate the international community’s support for Afghanistan’s future and the agenda outlined by President Karzai in his November 19 inauguration speech.
“The meetings will focus on the implementation of our strategy in support of Afghanistan’s security, governance and development, and improved international civilian coordination,” the State Department said.
Gen Stanley McChrystal, the top US commander in Afghanistan, will also attend the conference. “I’d like everybody to walk out of London with a renewed commitment,” he said, “and that commitment is to the right outcome for the Afghan people”.
Gen McChrystal is expected to push his plan for peace with the Taliban, while Mr Holbrooke will participate in discussions on the so-called Taliban integration fund.
Canada, which has deployed 2,800 troops in Afghanistan, also has indicated its support for a negotiated peace with the Taliban.
“Yes, discussions with the Taliban; yes, led by the Afghans; and yes, certain conditions that have to be in place,” said Canadian Defence Minister Peter MacKay. “Without that the discussions really are moot.” The Taliban has long resisted calls for negotiations. Last week, spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid emphatically stated that “the only political solution is that the foreign forces and the Afghan government surrender to us”.
Diplomatic observers in Washington say that negotiations may be the only way to a peaceful settlement in Afghanistan.
A continued confrontation, they warned, might lead to a massive bloodshed at the hands of militants once Nato soldiers left.
Copyright DawnNews 27.01.2010
Japanese PM in a pinch
TOKYO: Nearly 100,000 people rallied on Japan’s Okinawa on Sunday to demand a US airbase be moved off the island, media said, deepening the prime minister’s woes as he struggles to resolve a feud by an end of May deadline.
Voters’ perception that Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama has mishandled the row over the US Marines’ Futenma airbase on Okinawa, a reluctant host to the bulk of US forces in Japan, is eroding support for his government as a key mid-year upper house election approaches.
Hatoyama’s Democratic Party, which swept to power in a general election last year, needs a decisive victory in the upper house poll, expected in July, to enact legislation smoothly.
Some, even within Hatoyama’s own party, say failure to resolve the row by his self-imposed deadline could force him to resign before the election. Crowds of residents, many wearing yellow as a symbol of protest, gathered in the town of Yomitan on Okinawa one day after a US newspaper said Tokyo was moving towards broadly accepting a 2006 deal to relocate Futenma’s functions from the centre of a city to a less populous part of the southern island.
About 90,000 people, including representatives of all major parties, took part in the rally, Kyodo news agency said. “To save the life, property and living environment of citizens, we Okinawans urge both Japanese and US governments to give up the relocation of the Futenma airfield within the prefecture,” Kyodo quoted a resolution adopted at the rally assaying.
US Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell is scheduled to visit Japan in the next few days. Hatoyama, who has said any new plan must win local understanding as well as satisfy the United States, on Saturday repeated his objection to the original 2006 plan.
In the campaign that swept his Democratic Party to power last year, Hatoyama had raised hopes the airbase would be moved off Okinawa, if not outside Japan entirely. The Washington Post said on its website that Japanese Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada told US Ambassador John Rooson Friday Tokyo was moving towards accepting major parts of the2006 deal.
It said Okada had suggested some changes to the 2006 deal, including altering the design of the runway at the new air station and moving parts of the facility to an island about 100 miles from Okinawa. It was unclear whether the proposal referred to the small island of Tokunoshima, where a crowd of 15,000 protested against accepting the airbase last week.
The row has not only ruffled ties with Washington but dented the government’s ratings with voters.
Support for Hatoyama’s government has fallen to around 30 per cent, after previous highs above 70 per cent, on growing voter doubts over his decision-making skills, clouding his Democratic Party’s chances of a decisive win in the upper house vote.
Voters’ perception that Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama has mishandled the row over the US Marines’ Futenma airbase on Okinawa, a reluctant host to the bulk of US forces in Japan, is eroding support for his government as a key mid-year upper house election approaches.
Hatoyama’s Democratic Party, which swept to power in a general election last year, needs a decisive victory in the upper house poll, expected in July, to enact legislation smoothly.
Some, even within Hatoyama’s own party, say failure to resolve the row by his self-imposed deadline could force him to resign before the election. Crowds of residents, many wearing yellow as a symbol of protest, gathered in the town of Yomitan on Okinawa one day after a US newspaper said Tokyo was moving towards broadly accepting a 2006 deal to relocate Futenma’s functions from the centre of a city to a less populous part of the southern island.
About 90,000 people, including representatives of all major parties, took part in the rally, Kyodo news agency said. “To save the life, property and living environment of citizens, we Okinawans urge both Japanese and US governments to give up the relocation of the Futenma airfield within the prefecture,” Kyodo quoted a resolution adopted at the rally assaying.
US Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell is scheduled to visit Japan in the next few days. Hatoyama, who has said any new plan must win local understanding as well as satisfy the United States, on Saturday repeated his objection to the original 2006 plan.
In the campaign that swept his Democratic Party to power last year, Hatoyama had raised hopes the airbase would be moved off Okinawa, if not outside Japan entirely. The Washington Post said on its website that Japanese Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada told US Ambassador John Rooson Friday Tokyo was moving towards accepting major parts of the2006 deal.
It said Okada had suggested some changes to the 2006 deal, including altering the design of the runway at the new air station and moving parts of the facility to an island about 100 miles from Okinawa. It was unclear whether the proposal referred to the small island of Tokunoshima, where a crowd of 15,000 protested against accepting the airbase last week.
The row has not only ruffled ties with Washington but dented the government’s ratings with voters.
Support for Hatoyama’s government has fallen to around 30 per cent, after previous highs above 70 per cent, on growing voter doubts over his decision-making skills, clouding his Democratic Party’s chances of a decisive win in the upper house vote.
Burka, Niqab have no place in Denmark: PM
COPENHAGEN: The face-covering Burka and Niqab veils worn by some Muslim women have no place in Denmark, Prime Minister Lars Loekke Rasmussen said on Tuesday, adding his government was considering restricting them.
Rasmussen stopped short, however, of calling for a ban on the veils, noting “legal and other limits”.
“The government’s position is clear: the Burka and the Niqab have no place in Danish society. They symbolise a view of women and humanity that we totally oppose and that we want to combat in Danish society,” Rasmussen told reporters.
Denmark is “an open, democratic society where we look at the person to whom we are talking, whether it’s in a classroom or on the job,” he said. “That is why we don’t want to see this garment in Danish society,” he added.
The prime minister’s comments came a day after the publication of a report which showed that use of the Burka was “extremely rare” in Denmark, though no figures were given, and that the Niqab was worn by “between 100 and 200” women.
Rasmussen stopped short, however, of calling for a ban on the veils, noting “legal and other limits”.
“The government’s position is clear: the Burka and the Niqab have no place in Danish society. They symbolise a view of women and humanity that we totally oppose and that we want to combat in Danish society,” Rasmussen told reporters.
Denmark is “an open, democratic society where we look at the person to whom we are talking, whether it’s in a classroom or on the job,” he said. “That is why we don’t want to see this garment in Danish society,” he added.
The prime minister’s comments came a day after the publication of a report which showed that use of the Burka was “extremely rare” in Denmark, though no figures were given, and that the Niqab was worn by “between 100 and 200” women.
Fresh clashes claim 200 lives in Nigeria
KANO (Nigeria), Jan 19: Nearly 200 people have been killed in fresh religious clashes between Christians and Muslims in the Nigerian city of Jos, a senior Muslim cleric and paramedic said on Tuesday.
State authorities placed the city under a 24-hour curfew and terrified residents reported hearing gunshots and seeing smoke billowing from parts of the city, the capital of Plateau State in central Nigeria.
The bodies of the most of the dead were being brought in to the city’s central mosque, according to its head Balarabe Dawud.
“We received 156 dead bodies this morning and another 36 this afternoon, in total we have 192 dead bodies,” Dawud said.
He said at least 800 people had been wounded in the clashes, 90 of whom had been evacuated to military hospitals with serious injuries.
Fighting had spread to Bukuru town on the outskirts of Jos by late afternoon, killing at least three people, paramedic Maryam Mohammed said at a clinic there.
“So far we have three dead and 39 injured,” he said.
Dawud, the imam, said the Jos central mosque was attending to those with minor injuries, but had run out of medical supplies.
“Even neighbourhood private clinics are full with the injured. Normally these are the places we would have gone to for supplies, but they are also in need of them,” he said.
An employee of the mos que, Mohammed Shittu, said earlier that “the mosque is full with the injured and the dead,” adding that 156 bodies had been taken to the mosque on Tuesday morning.
Authorities said a curfew put in place at the weekend had been extended.
“The government has placed a 24-hour curfew on Jos and Bukuru following the resumption of violence in parts of the city,” the state’s information commissioner Gregory Yenlong said.
“All residents are hereby directed to stay indoors as security agents work towards restoring peace,” said Yenlong.
All flights to the city were suspended on Tuesday, airport and airline sources said.
David Maiyaki, a Christian resident of Dutse Uku area of Jos where the latest fighting erupted overnight, said the curfew did not yet seem to have taken effect and “fighting is continuing unabated”.
“We woke up to new fighting this morning. As I am talking to you we are indoors, but there is burning and gunshots all around us,” said David Maiyaki by phone.
Ibrahim Mudi, a resident of Sabon Fegi suburb, said: “From here I can hear gunshots and see burning buildings from a neighbourhood in the northern part of the city.” “It seems that Jos north is completely on fire,” added Mudi, who spoke by phone from his veranda.
Mohammed Ahmad from the Unguwarrogo area said the city “is enveloped in smoke and gunshots have filled the air”.
“It’s quite terrifying. We are indoors but we don’t feel safe. It’s like any moment something is going to happen to us,” said Ahmad.
Sunday’s fighting had been confined to the predominantly Christian Nassarawa Gwon area but has since spread to other parts of the city, the army said.
“It is not concentrated, it is not limited to one area, it is scattered,” army spokesman Colonel Galadima Shekari said.
Fighting first erupted when Christian youths protested the building of a mosque in a Christian-majority area of Nigeria’s 10th-largest city. Houses and vehicles were set ablaze.
Sunday’s clashes killed at least 26 people, according to Muslim leaders.
The Red Cross said more than 100 people were seriously injured in that fighting and that it was struggling to cope with around 3,000 displaced people.
State authorities said on Monday that calm had returned and urged people to go about their daily activities as normal after hundreds of troops and police had been drafted in to impose order and a 12-hour dusk-to-dawn curfew.
The curfew was extended following the latest clashes.
Jos, situated between the Muslim-dominated north and the Christian south, has in recent years been a hotbed of religious violence in Nigeria, whose 150 million people are divided almost equally between followers of the two faiths.
State authorities placed the city under a 24-hour curfew and terrified residents reported hearing gunshots and seeing smoke billowing from parts of the city, the capital of Plateau State in central Nigeria.
The bodies of the most of the dead were being brought in to the city’s central mosque, according to its head Balarabe Dawud.
“We received 156 dead bodies this morning and another 36 this afternoon, in total we have 192 dead bodies,” Dawud said.
He said at least 800 people had been wounded in the clashes, 90 of whom had been evacuated to military hospitals with serious injuries.
Fighting had spread to Bukuru town on the outskirts of Jos by late afternoon, killing at least three people, paramedic Maryam Mohammed said at a clinic there.
“So far we have three dead and 39 injured,” he said.
Dawud, the imam, said the Jos central mosque was attending to those with minor injuries, but had run out of medical supplies.
“Even neighbourhood private clinics are full with the injured. Normally these are the places we would have gone to for supplies, but they are also in need of them,” he said.
An employee of the mos que, Mohammed Shittu, said earlier that “the mosque is full with the injured and the dead,” adding that 156 bodies had been taken to the mosque on Tuesday morning.
Authorities said a curfew put in place at the weekend had been extended.
“The government has placed a 24-hour curfew on Jos and Bukuru following the resumption of violence in parts of the city,” the state’s information commissioner Gregory Yenlong said.
“All residents are hereby directed to stay indoors as security agents work towards restoring peace,” said Yenlong.
All flights to the city were suspended on Tuesday, airport and airline sources said.
David Maiyaki, a Christian resident of Dutse Uku area of Jos where the latest fighting erupted overnight, said the curfew did not yet seem to have taken effect and “fighting is continuing unabated”.
“We woke up to new fighting this morning. As I am talking to you we are indoors, but there is burning and gunshots all around us,” said David Maiyaki by phone.
Ibrahim Mudi, a resident of Sabon Fegi suburb, said: “From here I can hear gunshots and see burning buildings from a neighbourhood in the northern part of the city.” “It seems that Jos north is completely on fire,” added Mudi, who spoke by phone from his veranda.
Mohammed Ahmad from the Unguwarrogo area said the city “is enveloped in smoke and gunshots have filled the air”.
“It’s quite terrifying. We are indoors but we don’t feel safe. It’s like any moment something is going to happen to us,” said Ahmad.
Sunday’s fighting had been confined to the predominantly Christian Nassarawa Gwon area but has since spread to other parts of the city, the army said.
“It is not concentrated, it is not limited to one area, it is scattered,” army spokesman Colonel Galadima Shekari said.
Fighting first erupted when Christian youths protested the building of a mosque in a Christian-majority area of Nigeria’s 10th-largest city. Houses and vehicles were set ablaze.
Sunday’s clashes killed at least 26 people, according to Muslim leaders.
The Red Cross said more than 100 people were seriously injured in that fighting and that it was struggling to cope with around 3,000 displaced people.
State authorities said on Monday that calm had returned and urged people to go about their daily activities as normal after hundreds of troops and police had been drafted in to impose order and a 12-hour dusk-to-dawn curfew.
The curfew was extended following the latest clashes.
Jos, situated between the Muslim-dominated north and the Christian south, has in recent years been a hotbed of religious violence in Nigeria, whose 150 million people are divided almost equally between followers of the two faiths.
Pope summons Irish bishops over sex abuse
VATICAN CITY: Pope Benedict XVI has summoned Irish bishops to the Vatican in February to chart a way forward over a child sex abuse scandal that has shaken Ireland, a spokesman said on Wednesday.
The Feb 15 to 16 meeting will address the aftermath of revelations that Church authorities covered up for paedophile priests in the mainly Catholic country for some three decades.
The pope already met on Dec 11 with Ireland’s two most senior Roman Catholic churchmen, primate of all Ireland Cardinal Sean Brady and Dublin Archbishop Diarmuid Martin, following a shock government report on the scandal in the Dublin archdiocese, Ireland’s biggest. The pope said then he shared “the outrage, betrayal and shame felt by so many of the faithful in Ireland (over) these heinous crimes” catalogued in the report issued in late November.
One priest admitted to sexually abusing over 100 children, while another accepted that he had abused on a fortnightly basis over 25 years.
The Feb 15 to 16 meeting will address the aftermath of revelations that Church authorities covered up for paedophile priests in the mainly Catholic country for some three decades.
The pope already met on Dec 11 with Ireland’s two most senior Roman Catholic churchmen, primate of all Ireland Cardinal Sean Brady and Dublin Archbishop Diarmuid Martin, following a shock government report on the scandal in the Dublin archdiocese, Ireland’s biggest. The pope said then he shared “the outrage, betrayal and shame felt by so many of the faithful in Ireland (over) these heinous crimes” catalogued in the report issued in late November.
One priest admitted to sexually abusing over 100 children, while another accepted that he had abused on a fortnightly basis over 25 years.
Our population problem
IN the 1960s President Ayub Khan made population growth a major policy concern for his development-minded administration. However, since then policymakers have not given the subject of population the attention it deserves.
That is unfortunate since the dynamics associated with population growth varies according to the location of people, the patterns of migration and differences among various areas. It has had a profound impact on the way the country has developed — and not just economically.
Demography has also had a profound impact on Pakistan’s political and economic development. Today I will look at some of the broad trends in Pakistan over the past six decades, look at the way population trends are shaping globally, and see how these world trends re late to Pakistan.
When Pakistan became independent in 1947 its population was estimated at 32 million. Sixty-three years later it has increased 5.3 times to 170 million. This implies an average annual rate of growth of 2.74 per cent, one of the highest in the world. The government claims that the rate of increase has been declining in recent years and is now below two per cent, possibly no more than 1.8 per cent a year.
In 1947, only 10 per cent of the population lived in urban areas; today the figure is about 50 per cent. This means that the size of the urban population has increased 26.5 times, again one of the highest rates of growth — 5.4 per cent a year. About a third of the urban population resides in two large cities, Karachi and Lahore. As is the case with the rest of the developing world, the rate of increase in the populations of large cities in Pakistan will also decline while those of the secondary and tertiary cities will increase.
This brings me to the question of global trends. It is useful to reflect on these in order to comprehend the challenges Pakistan’s policymakers face and will do so in the future as they begin to focus on the impact of demography.
The UN’s population division now projects that world population growth will almost come to a standstill by 2050. At that time the global population will stabilise at 9.15 billion compared to the present 6.83 billion. This levelling in the rate of increase was not anticipated a couple of decades ago. In the 1980s, for instance, demographers worried about what they had begun to call the population bomb. The bomb did not explode in most parts of the developing world. That said, there is now a new worry — the distribution worldwide of the anticipated growth. The new generation of demographers has now begun to point to some population trends that could produce a great deal of economic, political and social instability.
Almost the entire growth in the world population of 2.32 billion will occur in the developing world. By the middle of this century the share of today’s rich countries will decline to only 12 per cent of the total, five percentage points lower than was the case at the beginning of the century. It is not always recognised that this is a significant reversal of past tends. At the start of the 18th century, Europe accounted for 20 per cent of the world’s population.
The advent of the industrial revolution in Britain resulted in an explosion of its population as health and sanitation facilities improved and the rates of mortality declined. In 1913, on the eve of the First World War, Europe had a population larger than that of China at that time. By that time the proportion of Europe in the context of the global population had increased to 33 per cent of the total. However, the continent was getting too crowded. There were serious food shortages in some parts; Ireland suffered what came to be known as the potato famine. In migration, the Europeans found a solution to their population problem. There was a massive movement of people to North America and Australia.
There will be other significant changes in the distribution of the population. Not only will today’s developed countries have a significantly lower proportion of the total population, their populations will also be much older and the proportion of non-working to working populations will increase considerably. Will the burden of looking after older people fall mostly on the young or will the state step in to help? If it is the latter, how will the state pay for the care of the poor? These have already become important policy issues in developed countries.
By the middle of the century more than half the global population will live in towns and cities. Most of the increase in urban populations will take place in the large- and medium-sized cities in the developing world. Even at this time these cities are proving hard to manage. Neither they nor the states in which they are located have the means to pro vide some of the essential services people need. In many of them security is a major concern. Today some 90 per cent of global homicides are committed in the urban areas of the developing world.
There will also be sig nificant demographic shifts within the developing world. Populations in Muslim countries will increase much more rapidly than in other parts. As Jack A. Goldstein says in his article, ‘The new population bomb’, in a recent issue of Foreign Affairs, “most of the world’s expected population will increasingly be concentrated in today’s poorest, youngest and most heavily Muslim countries which have lack of quality education, capital and employment opportunities”. He probably had Pakistan in mind when he wrote that sentence. But the option of migration is increasingly less available to the crowded Muslim world as was the case for the Europeans 100 years ago.
This then is the context in which we should look at our demographic situation. We are engaged in a race: either develop the economy rapidly so that opportunities are created for the young or fumble with the economy and let the youth turn increasingly towards extremism. ¦
That is unfortunate since the dynamics associated with population growth varies according to the location of people, the patterns of migration and differences among various areas. It has had a profound impact on the way the country has developed — and not just economically.
Demography has also had a profound impact on Pakistan’s political and economic development. Today I will look at some of the broad trends in Pakistan over the past six decades, look at the way population trends are shaping globally, and see how these world trends re late to Pakistan.
When Pakistan became independent in 1947 its population was estimated at 32 million. Sixty-three years later it has increased 5.3 times to 170 million. This implies an average annual rate of growth of 2.74 per cent, one of the highest in the world. The government claims that the rate of increase has been declining in recent years and is now below two per cent, possibly no more than 1.8 per cent a year.
In 1947, only 10 per cent of the population lived in urban areas; today the figure is about 50 per cent. This means that the size of the urban population has increased 26.5 times, again one of the highest rates of growth — 5.4 per cent a year. About a third of the urban population resides in two large cities, Karachi and Lahore. As is the case with the rest of the developing world, the rate of increase in the populations of large cities in Pakistan will also decline while those of the secondary and tertiary cities will increase.
This brings me to the question of global trends. It is useful to reflect on these in order to comprehend the challenges Pakistan’s policymakers face and will do so in the future as they begin to focus on the impact of demography.
The UN’s population division now projects that world population growth will almost come to a standstill by 2050. At that time the global population will stabilise at 9.15 billion compared to the present 6.83 billion. This levelling in the rate of increase was not anticipated a couple of decades ago. In the 1980s, for instance, demographers worried about what they had begun to call the population bomb. The bomb did not explode in most parts of the developing world. That said, there is now a new worry — the distribution worldwide of the anticipated growth. The new generation of demographers has now begun to point to some population trends that could produce a great deal of economic, political and social instability.
Almost the entire growth in the world population of 2.32 billion will occur in the developing world. By the middle of this century the share of today’s rich countries will decline to only 12 per cent of the total, five percentage points lower than was the case at the beginning of the century. It is not always recognised that this is a significant reversal of past tends. At the start of the 18th century, Europe accounted for 20 per cent of the world’s population.
The advent of the industrial revolution in Britain resulted in an explosion of its population as health and sanitation facilities improved and the rates of mortality declined. In 1913, on the eve of the First World War, Europe had a population larger than that of China at that time. By that time the proportion of Europe in the context of the global population had increased to 33 per cent of the total. However, the continent was getting too crowded. There were serious food shortages in some parts; Ireland suffered what came to be known as the potato famine. In migration, the Europeans found a solution to their population problem. There was a massive movement of people to North America and Australia.
There will be other significant changes in the distribution of the population. Not only will today’s developed countries have a significantly lower proportion of the total population, their populations will also be much older and the proportion of non-working to working populations will increase considerably. Will the burden of looking after older people fall mostly on the young or will the state step in to help? If it is the latter, how will the state pay for the care of the poor? These have already become important policy issues in developed countries.
By the middle of the century more than half the global population will live in towns and cities. Most of the increase in urban populations will take place in the large- and medium-sized cities in the developing world. Even at this time these cities are proving hard to manage. Neither they nor the states in which they are located have the means to pro vide some of the essential services people need. In many of them security is a major concern. Today some 90 per cent of global homicides are committed in the urban areas of the developing world.
There will also be sig nificant demographic shifts within the developing world. Populations in Muslim countries will increase much more rapidly than in other parts. As Jack A. Goldstein says in his article, ‘The new population bomb’, in a recent issue of Foreign Affairs, “most of the world’s expected population will increasingly be concentrated in today’s poorest, youngest and most heavily Muslim countries which have lack of quality education, capital and employment opportunities”. He probably had Pakistan in mind when he wrote that sentence. But the option of migration is increasingly less available to the crowded Muslim world as was the case for the Europeans 100 years ago.
This then is the context in which we should look at our demographic situation. We are engaged in a race: either develop the economy rapidly so that opportunities are created for the young or fumble with the economy and let the youth turn increasingly towards extremism. ¦
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